Analysis of the scenario of incomplete vaccination of the population

We present scenarios for the spreading of the epidemic in two variants of the population resistance level – the percentage of recoveries in the population on April 1 is about 35% or about 45%.
We are analyzing two variants of the vaccination program implementation.
1. The optimistic variant assumes that the only limitation of the vaccination rate is the availability of vaccines. In particular, in the optimistic variant of the vaccination program implementation, we assume that by the end of Q2 2021:
• the number of people vaccinated with the first dose will be around 20.9 million,
• including about 17.1 million vaccinated with the first dose of the mRNA vaccine,
• about 3.8 million vaccinated with the first dose of the vectored vaccine.

2. The pessimistic scenario is that each approved age group will no longer get vaccinated when vaccination coverage reaches 70%

Variants of the implementation of the vaccination program
The scenarios take into account all historically introduced restrictions and easing.
The last of them are:
• May 08 opening hotels at 50%,
• May 15 opening of restaurant gardens and opening of classes 4-12 in hybrid mode,
• May 29 opening of restaurants and cinemas at 50%, gym with limits, opening of all schools.

Percentage of successfully vaccinated people in the population as a function of time for both variants of the vaccination program.

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