Openings and the risk of the fourth wave of the epidemic

We present scenarios for the spreading of the epidemic in two variants of the population immunity level: the cumulative total of actual infections on March 1 is about 25% or about 33%.

In all scenarios, the vaccination program is considered as follows:
• 700-900 thousand persons monthly vaccinated with the first dose of Comirnata (Pfizer) vaccine in the following order:
• 660 thou. age group 20+
• 2 300 thou. age group 70+
• 1,900 thou. age group 60+

In addition, we include vaccinations with the first dose of AstraZeneca at the level of 830 thou. people per month from February 15 in the 20-65 age group. Assuming a 60% effectiveness of this vaccine, this means 500 thou. monthly “successfully vaccinated” people.

The analysis includes all historical restrictions and unfreezing, in particular the latter, i.e .:
• 27.02 – restrictions in the province. Warmia and Mazuria,
• 15.03 – restrictions covering 4 more voivodeships,
• 20.03 – extension of restrictions to the entire country, in particular school closure,
• 29.03 – closing of kindergardens and most services.

Then, we add easing to the baseline forecast restrictions in two variants.
First variant:
• April 19 opening of kindergardens,
• on April 26, return to the situation from February 12, 2021 (without opening hotels),
• May 4 increasing travel (opening of hotels).

Option two:
• as above, plus the opening of classes 1-3 on April 26

We show the collective resistance as a function of time in three graphs:
• successfully vaccinated
• recovered (including those vaccinated)
• all immune


Download the chart in full resolution

As can be seen in the above charts, regardless of the chosen variant of immunizing the public, the potential for the 4th wave after the opening of kindergartens and grades 1-3 is small. The level of immunization in these age groups is higher than in the rest, which is consistent with the analyzes performed so far.