The following scenarios analyze the impact of possible opening of facilities and reduction of administrative restrictions on two levels of public immunization. We understand the immunization of society as the actual, cumulative number of infections in the population.
This is due to the different values of the “dark figure” parameter, which is understood as the ratio of the actual number of all infections to the number of cases found.
In all scenarios, the vaccination program is considered as follows:
• 700-900 thousand persons monthly vaccinated with the first dose of Comirnata (Pfizer) vaccine in the following order:
• 660 thou. age group 20+
• 2 300 thou. age group 70+
• 1,900 thou. age group 60+
In addition, we include vaccinations with the first dose of AstraZeneca at the level of 830 thou. people per month from February 15 in the 20-65 age group. Assuming a 60% effectiveness of this vaccine, this means 500 thou. monthly “successfully vaccinated” people.
The analysis includes all historical restrictions and unfreezing, in particular the latter, i.e .:
• 27.02 – restrictions in the province. Warmia and Mazuria,
• 15.03 – restrictions covering 4 more voivodeships,
• 20.03 – extension of restrictions to the entire country, in particular school closure,
• 29.03 – closing of kindergartens and most services.
The higher variant corresponds to a lower level of immunization (approx. 25% as of March 1, 2021) and the lower variant corresponds to a higher level of immunization (approx. 33% as of March 1, 2021). Recent data indicate that the epidemic is developing along the lower variant.
Download the chart in full resolution
With the above assumptions, we analyze the situation in which some administrative restrictions are removed and some educational institutions are opened.
The graphs below present the number of cases, the cumulative number of actual infections, the number of people requiring hospitalization and ICU patients, and the number of deaths (as daily and cumulative values).
On April 19, kindergartens and classes 1-3 grade are opened, and then:
• April 26 – return to the situation from February 12, 2021 (continuous line),
• April 26 – return to the situation from February 12, 2021 and additional opening of classes 4-8 (dashed line).
Returning to the situation of February 12, 2021 means opening cinemas, theaters, swimming pools, hotels, etc.
