We present the graphs showing the number of confirmed cases of Covid-19 infection in the voivodeship resolution. Download full resolution chart
Read moreWe present a variant forecast for the spreading of the epidemic in autumn 2021. This is a test forecast, taking into account the risk of reinfection and partial cross-resistance between the Alpha and Delta variants. General informations about forecast• The forecast variants assume two levels of population immunization (lower and higher) – the percentage of […]
Read moreWe present a variant forecast for spreading of the epidemic by the end of August. Due to the fact that the used version of the model does not yet take into account the risk of reinfection, both variants of the forecast assume a lower level of population immunity – the percentage of survivors in the […]
Read moreWe present epidemic spreading scenarios for different variants of the population resistance level in the case of the delta variant. Scenario assumptions: • Population immunity level – the percentage of recoveries in the population as of June 1 is around 45% or around 57%.• All scenarios take into account the opening of schools and the […]
Read moreWe present scenarios for the spreading of the epidemic in two variants of the population resistance level – the percentage of recoveries in the population on April 1 is about 35% or about 45%.We are analyzing two variants of the vaccination program implementation.1. The optimistic variant assumes that the only limitation of the vaccination rate […]
Read moreThe analysis below examines the possibility of the spreading of wave IV of the epidemic, with different variants of school opening on May 4, 2021, and two alternative virus infectivity values in schools. Basic information about the analysis. We analyze two variants of the population immunity level – the cumulative amount of actual infections on […]
Read moreWe present scenarios for the spreading of the epidemic in two variants of the population immunity level: the cumulative total of actual infections on March 1 is about 25% or about 33%. In all scenarios, the vaccination program is considered as follows:• 700-900 thousand persons monthly vaccinated with the first dose of Comirnata (Pfizer) vaccine […]
Read moreThe following scenarios analyze the impact of possible opening of facilities and reduction of administrative restrictions on two levels of public immunization. We understand the immunization of society as the actual, cumulative number of infections in the population.This is due to the different values of the “dark figure” parameter, which is understood as the ratio […]
Read moreAll scenarios presented include the opening of classes 1-3 on January 18 and two stages of reduction of restrictions, announced in February 2021:• February 1: opening of shopping malls and museums,• February 12: opening of cinemas, theaters, swimming pools, hotels, slopes,The scenarios take into account the decreasing level of social acceptance for administrative restrictions. In […]
Read moreThe analysis below concerns variants of the spreading of the epidemic for the forecast from 9/11. The base course includes the introduction of the red zone throughout the country on 10/26.Observation data is updated to 18/11. The analysis does not take into account the currently considered variants of administrative restrictions (such as winter holidays until […]
Read moreThe COVID-19 epidemic modeling team at ICM UW in August 2020 developed several scenarios showing the possible situations after the schools opened on September 1, 2020. The predictive task in this case was burdened with great uncertainty, due to the unknown virus transmissibility among people from school age groups – there is no clear epidemiological […]
Read moreThe analysis combines the data of diagnosed cases of disease around the world (data from CSSE John Hopins University, https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19) with information on school openings and closings (https://unesco.org). We draw the daily numbers of identified cases, smoothed with the Savitzky-Golay filter for the sake of clarity. In order to have an insight into the dynamics of […]
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