ICM epidemiological model

Current forecasts

Dynamic chart of identified cases of Covid-19 infection in the period from March 16, 2020 with a prediction to June 30, 2023.

Chart prepared on the basis of the forecast of March 3, 2023.

The current forecast takes into account all historically introduced restrictions and relaxations, partly the increase in mobility and contact related to the influx of refugees, the seasonality effect, the impact of holidays, declining immunity and the beginning of the school and academic year. The forecast takes into account the sub-option BA2 of the omicron variant, the sub-options BA4/BA5 and the sub-options BQ.1/BQ.1.1 and XBB.1.5 in two options: optimistic and pessimistic cross-resistance with the previous variants.

Numbers of identified cases (data reported by Ministry of Health) from February 8, 2022 are given together with reinfections. The daily number of hospitalizations is not reported from April 1, 2022, from April 12, it is reported every week. Numbers of occupied ICU beds are not reported from April 1, 2022, therefore, the plots of occupied ICU beds are uncalibrated.

You can read more about the considered variants and the impact of the assumptions on the forecast in the Analyzes and scenarios tab.

We also publish our results on the portal https://covid19forecasthub.eu/visualisation.html. This platform provides forecasts for most European countries from a number of Covid-19 modeling teams.

The graph is displayed by default from 07/01. Double-clicking returns to the graph view for the entire pandemic period.

Excessive number of deaths

The plot below shows weekly deaths in our model, confirmed COVID-19 deaths and excessive number of deaths based on OWID data.

Data published at https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus. Research and data: Edouard Mathieu, Hannah Ritchie, Lucas Rodés-Guirao, Cameron Appel, Daniel Gavrilov, Charlie Giattino, Joe Hasell, Bobbie Macdonald, Saloni Dattani, Diana Beltekian, Esteban Ortiz-Ospina, and Max Roser.

Download the chart in high resolution.