ICM epidemiological model

Current forecasts

Dynamic chart of identified cases of Covid-19 infection in the period from March 16, 2020 with a prediction to March 1, 2022.

Chart prepared on the basis of the forecast of November 4, 2021. Forecasts for hospitalization, ICU and deaths based on the simulation of November 25, 2021.

The current forecast takes into account all historically introduced restrictions, the holiday period and the return to the social situation from September 2020.

The epidemic spreading scenarios are presented with the assumption of population immunity of about 43% of recoveries on September 10/2021, in two variants. The higher variant assumes the way society functions unchanged under the influence of growth. The lower variant, on the other hand, assumes that the society, under the influence of information about the growing epidemic wave, limits the number of social contacts and hospitals introduce carefull management of hospital beds, e.g. by shortening hospitalization time whenever possible.

Approximately 20.5 million people who received at least one dose of the vaccine were vaccinated. Data updated on November 25, 2021

You can read more about the considered variants and the impact of the assumptions on the forecast in the Analyzes and scenarios tab.

We also publish our results on the portal https://covid19forecasthub.eu/visualisation.html. This platform provides forecasts for most European countries from a number of Covid-19 modeling teams.

The graph is displayed by default from 01/09. Double-clicking returns to the graph view for the entire pandemic period.

Prediction of the maximum occupancy of hospitals

Additionally, we present the forecasted maximum number of people requiring hospitalization (occupied beds at the peak of the wave) per 100,000 inhabitants, in the voivodship resolution. Data are presented for high and low immunization (percentage of recoveries in the August 1 population is about 42% or about 52%).
Download the map in high resolution.

Excessive number of deaths in 2020

The plot below shows weekly deaths in our model, confirmed COVID-19 deaths and excessive number of deaths based on Eurostat (GUS) data (avg. weekly deaths 2010-2019 substracted from weekly deaths 2020 and 2021).
Download the chart in high resolution.