ICM epidemiological model

Current forecasts

Dynamic chart of identified cases of Covid-19 infection in the period from March 16, 2020 with a prediction to March 1, 2022.

Chart prepared on the basis of the forecast of January 10, 2022.

The current forecast takes into account all historically introduced restrictions, the holiday period and the return to the social situation from September 2020 and then increasing the intensity of social contacts before Christmas and the closure of schools on December 20.

The epidemic spreading scenarios are presented with the assumption of population immunity of about 43% of recoveries on September 10/2021.

Comments to the forecasts of confirmed cases:
We present the 1B wave forecast (the wave caused by the Omikron variant).
The oncoming wave, due to the high transmissibility of the virus, will certainly manifest itself in strong accumulation of the reported cases. With the current level of detection (understood as the quotient of the identified cases and all actual infections) maintained, this would result in readings of identified cases even at the level of 140,000. cases per day. It is known, however, that in Poland the testing system has a limited capacity – so we show a presumably lower course of the identified cases, taking into account the limited capacity of the testing system.

Comments on the prognosis of hospitalization:
As always, we present the forecasts of the required beds for COVID-19 patients. These numbers usually exceed the reported data – this is due to the fact that part of the population does not report to hospitals and the fact that, during the increase in occupancy, hospitals apply a resource-saving policy.
Currently, scientific reports from around the world differ in the assessment of the hospitalization rate. Therefore, in our forecasts, we show the lower and upper variants of the occupancy of beds, which – at the current stage of knowledge – differ significantly (from 30,000 to 85,000). With the development of the omicron wave in Poland and the appearance of data defining the hospitalization rate specific to Poland, the discrepancy in forecasts will narrow.

Approximately 20.5 million people who received at least one dose of the vaccine were vaccinated. Data updated on December 10, 2021

You can read more about the considered variants and the impact of the assumptions on the forecast in the Analyzes and scenarios tab.

We also publish our results on the portal https://covid19forecasthub.eu/visualisation.html. This platform provides forecasts for most European countries from a number of Covid-19 modeling teams.

The graph is displayed by default from 01/09. Double-clicking returns to the graph view for the entire pandemic period.

Prediction of the maximum occupancy of hospitals

Additionally, we present the forecasted maximum number of people requiring hospitalization (occupied beds at the peak of the wave) per 100,000 inhabitants, in the voivodship resolution. Data are presented for high and low immunization (percentage of recoveries in the August 1 population is about 42% or about 52%).

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Excessive number of deaths in 2020

The plot below shows weekly deaths in our model, confirmed COVID-19 deaths and excessive number of deaths based on Eurostat (GUS) data (avg. weekly deaths 2010-2019 substracted from weekly deaths 2020 and 2021).
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